基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量反演研究进展

不同尺度下温室气体的空间分布及变化趋势是研究气候变化的基础,也是评估相关减排政策实施效果的重要依据。当前碳排放核算主要基于排放清单,不确定性较大。基于监测数据的碳排放核算能够有效评估和修正排放清单结果,是对当前方法的有效补充。国内温室气体的监测主要针对污染源和环境浓度,对于人为源温室气体排放通量的监测研究较少。该文分析了近年来国内外基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量研究,主要的研究方法可分为2类:柱浓度空间分布结合三维风场数据反演排放通量;结合实测体积分数、大气扩散模型和统计优化模型修正先验排放通量结果,以获取更准确的后验排放通量。通过分析和对比2种方法的优势和局限,讨论不同通量反演方法的适用场景。建议我国未来应构建适用于不同空间尺度的温室气体通量监测反演体系,综合利用多种监测手段,以校核验证排放清单,并为制定温室气体减排策略和评估应对气候变化工作成效提供技术支撑。

Advances in Inversion of Greenhouse Gas Emission Fluxes from Anthropogenic Sources Based on Ground-Based Monitoring

The spatial distribution and change trend of greenhouse gases at different scales are the basis for studying climate change and for evaluating the effectiveness of relevant emission reduction policies. The current carbon emission accounting is mainly based on emission inventory,with high uncertainties. Carbon emission accounting based on monitoring data can effectively evaluate and correct the accounting results based on emission inventory,which is an effective complement to current methods. However,most of the relevant studies in China focus on the measurement of greenhouse gas concentration in different environment or around emission sources. The researches on the monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions flux are barely reported. This paper analyses the research on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions flux based on ground-based monitoring during recent years. The main research methods can be divided into two categories:Inverting emission flux through column concentration spatial distribution combined with three-dimensional wind measurement. By combining the measured greenhouse gas volume fraction, atmospheric diffusion model and statistical optimization model, the prior emission flux results are corrected to obtain a more accurate posterior emission flux. By analyses and comparing the advantages and limitations of the two methods, the application scenarios of different anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions flux inversion methods are discussed. It is suggested that China should establish a greenhouse gas flux monitoring system suitable for different spatial scales, comprehensively utilize various monitoring methods to verify emission inventories,and provide technical support for formulating greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies and evaluating the effectiveness of addressing climate change.