国家水环境质量预报预警研究进展及业务发展思路

开展国家水环境质量预报预警工作是生态环境治理能力现代化的重要部分,是统筹山水林田湖草系统治理的重要抓手。文章介绍了国内外水质模型的研究进展,并概述了国内外水质预报预警系统研究进展,在此基础上分析目前我国水质预报预警方面存在的不足,并提出了国家水环境质量预报预警业务发展的初步思路。我国水质预报预警体系建设要以技术体系和业务体系为保障,以水质模型和面源污染模型为支撑,依托水环境质量预报预警决策支持平台,开展环境监管业务化应用、治理决策精细化支撑、污染事故科学化处置和数据产品社会化服务4种业务应用,逐步建成架构统一、业务协同、资源共享、上下游联动的全国-流域-省级-城市四级水环境质量预报预警网络。

Research Progress and Preliminary Plan of National Water Quality Forecasting and Alarming System

Carrying out the national water quality forecasting and alarming system is an important part of the modernization of the ecological environment governance capacity. It is also an important starting point for the management of lake grass system in landscape forest field. This paper introduces the research progress of water quality model and water quality forecasting and alarming system at home and abroad, and analyzes the existing shortage of water quality forecasting and alarming in China, then proposes a preliminary plan for the development of the national water quality forecasting and alarming system. The construction of water quality forecasting and alarming system should be supported by technical system and operational system, based on water quality model and non-point pollution model, relying on the decision-supporting platform of water environment quality forecasting and alarming. Based on these technology supports, the water quality forecasting and alarming system will be established to accomplish four applications:Operational application of environmental supervision, fine support of management decision-making, scientific disposal of accidents, and the socialized services of data products. After that, the four levels network including national, basins, provinces and cities will be gradually established, which implement unified framework, operation collaboration, resource sharing, and upstream and downstream linkage.