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江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式效果评估
引用本文:朱莉莉,晏平仲,王自发,李杰,张祥志,汤莉莉,李健军,刘冰.江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式效果评估[J].中国环境监测,2015,31(2):17-23.
作者姓名:朱莉莉  晏平仲  王自发  李杰  张祥志  汤莉莉  李健军  刘冰
作者单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029,江苏省环境监测中心, 江苏 南京 210036,江苏省环境监测中心, 江苏 南京 210036,中国环境监测总站, 国家环境保护环境监测质量控制重点实验室, 北京 100012,中国环境监测总站, 国家环境保护环境监测质量控制重点实验室, 北京 100012
摘    要:采用中国科学院大气物理研究所开发的嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS),搭建江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式系统,并测试了该系统对2013年夏季江苏省PM2.5质量浓度未来24 h预报以及7 d潜势预测的效果。结果表明,该系统成功应用于江苏省的空气质量预报;所有地市的24 h预报效果均在合理范围内(平均分数偏差小于±60%且平均分数误差小于75%);7 d潜势预测效果比24 h预报效果略差,整体能准确把握PM2.5质量浓度的变化趋势。

关 键 词:PM2.5  江苏省  空气质量预报  统计检验
收稿时间:2014/1/10 0:00:00
修稿时间:2014/3/25 0:00:00

An Operational Evaluation of the Regional Air Quality Forecast Modeling System in Jiangsu
ZHU Li-li,YAN Ping-zhong,WANG Zi-f,LI Jie,ZHANG Xiang-zhi,TANG Li-li,LI Jian-jun and LIU Bing.An Operational Evaluation of the Regional Air Quality Forecast Modeling System in Jiangsu[J].Environmental Monitoring in China,2015,31(2):17-23.
Authors:ZHU Li-li  YAN Ping-zhong  WANG Zi-f  LI Jie  ZHANG Xiang-zhi  TANG Li-li  LI Jian-jun and LIU Bing
Institution:Chinese Academy of Science, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layers Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing 100029, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China,Chinese Academy of Science, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layers Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing 100029, China,Chinese Academy of Science, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layers Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing 100029, China,Chinese Academy of Science, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layers Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing 100029, China,Jiangsu Environmental Monitoring Centre, Nanjing 210036, China,Jiangsu Environmental Monitoring Centre, Nanjing 210036, China,State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Quality Control in Environmental Monitoring, China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China and State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Quality Control in Environmental Monitoring, China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China
Abstract:The numerical air quality forecast model was operationally applied to Jiangsu, named NAQPMS developed by IAP/CAS. The model performance was examined in terms of 24-hour forecast and 7-day potential forecast for PM2.5 daily mean concentration during the summertime of 2013. The results indicate the model effectively predict air quality. The statistical indicators for 24-hour PM2.5 forecast satisfy the performance criteria of mean fractional bias and mean fractional error. Besides, the model well reproduced the tendency of PM2.5 concentrations in 7-day potential forecast most of time.
Keywords:PM2  5  Jiangsu  air quality forecast  statistical performance
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