基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的中国城市环境空气质量主要影响因素

当前,中国城市环境空气污染形势十分严峻,空气质量呈现出典型的区域性特征。研究对2006—2012年各地区环境空气质量数据和经济社会发展指标统计资料面板数据进行分析,结果表明:研究选取时段内多数空气质量指标与人均国内生产总值之间的关系并不符合典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线(倒U型曲线),无显著相关性,但NO2质量浓度与人均国内生产总值之间呈现出倒N型曲线,空气质量综合指数与人口密度之间也呈现出倒N型曲线。空气质量综合指数与国民经济中第二产业占比和第三产业占比之间没有显著的相关关系,但与第一产业占比呈显著的负相关关系。空气质量综合指数与主要污染物单位面积排放量呈显著的正相关关系,与单位面积能源消费总量、单位面积煤炭消费量均呈显著的正相关关系,表明以煤炭为主要能源类型的能源消费带来的污染物排放是影响空气质量的主要因素。空气质量综合指数与降水量呈显著的负相关关系,降水量等气象条件对空气质量有一定影响,在开展大气污染防治时,应综合考虑各地的自然因素特征,合理确定工作目标和防治对策。

Analysis on the Main Factors that Affected Air Quality Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curves

The air pollution in the most cities of China are serious, and the air quality in one provincial area is obviously different from other area, The air quality data and the statistical data about the developing of economy and society in 2006-2012 were studied in this paper.The results showed that there was not a normal Environmental Kuznets Curves between the most air quality index and the per capita GDP, the correlation was not obvious, but the correlation between the average concentration of NO₂ and the per capita GDP was a inverted N, and the correlation between the air quality composite index and the density of population also was a inverted N. There was not a obvious correlation between the air quality composite index and the proportion of the secondary occupation and the service sector, but there was an obvious negative correlation for the primary industry. There were some positive correlations between the air quality composite index and the total emission per area,the total energy consumption per area, and the total coal consumption per area, so the emission that from the energy consumption is the main factor that affect the air quality in China. There was a an obvious negative correlation between the air quality composite index and the precipitation, so the meteorological condition also can influence the air quality, and should be think about in the target setting and policy making about preventing pollution and improving air quality.