长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统及其在重大活动保障中的应用

2014年起,上海市围绕城市及长三角区域空气质量预测预报和重污染预警需求,搭建了长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统。该系统综合应用了模式参数化方案比选、排放清单耦合处理、大气化学资料同化、大数据集合订正等关键技术,集合模式PM2. 5和O3小时浓度偏差为-10%~10%,提升了区域PM2. 5和O3浓度模拟效果。该系统实现了污染在线源解析和多排放情景模拟等功能的业务应用,应用于2018年首届中国国际进口博览会保障中,为上海市及长三角区域空气质量业务预报和重大活动保障提供了业务产品支撑。

Air Quality Numerical Forecast System and Its Application During the Period of Guarantee for Major Events in Yangtze River Delta Region

Since 2014,based on the needs of air quality forecast and early warning of heavy pollution in Shanghai and Yangtze River Delta (YRD),air quality numerical forecast system for YRD has been built. In this system,the key technologies,including sensitivity comparison of parametric schemes,coupled processing of emission inventory,assimilation of atmospheric chemical observation,revision of big data,have been applied. The ranges of normalized mean bias of simulated PM2. 5 and O3 hourly concentration are -10% to 10%,which enhances the model simulation performance of PM2. 5 and O3. In addition,the modules of emission source apportionment and scenario simulation of emission control strategies have been implemented for the guarantee of first import expo in 2018,which provides the operational products for air quality forecast and guarantee of major events in Shanghai and YRD.