污染源减排对长三角区域冬季细颗粒物污染的敏感性研究

为了进一步精准有效地降低细颗粒物浓度,针对长三角区域细颗粒物PM2.5浓度,选取8个省级区域的5种污染物为减排目标,设定5个基准排放情景,采用CMAQ-DDM敏感性技术分别进行敏感性分析。结果表明,冬季长三角区域PM2.5污染受区域内的4个省级区域一次PM2.5排放影响最大,区域外的排放影响主要来自河南省和山东省的氨气和一次PM2.5。分别削减本地60%一次PM2.5的排放,安徽省PM2.5平均质量浓度下降了23. 24μg/m^3,江苏省下降了18. 32μg/m^3,上海市下降了15. 17μg/m^3,浙江省下降了9. 07μg/m3。综合各省(市)浓度响应曲线,最大排放因子均为本地一次PM2.5,削减20%左右存在敏感性最大值,削减60%之后浓度曲线趋于平缓,其他因子削减40%以后PM2.5浓度下降逐渐明显,对最后一位排放因子的响应则比较平缓。

Sensitivity Analysis of Pollutant Emissions to Ambient PM2.5Pollutionin the Winter of Yangtze River Delta

In order to reduce the PM2.5 concentration scientifically and effectively,this study aims to investigate the change of ambient PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region with the emission of five pollutants from eight provinces in central and eastern China. We set five baseline emission scenarios,and carried out sensitivity analysis respectively using DDM sensitivity technology of CMAQ air quality model. The results showed that the concentration of PM2.5 in the YRD region is mainly affected by primary PM2.5 emissions from four provinces inside the YRD. The impacts of pollutants outside the region are mainly from Henan Province and Shandong Province,and the main pollutants are NH3 and primary PM2.5. If the primary PM2.5 emission of each local province was reduced by 60%,the average concentration of PM2.5 in Anhui Province,Jiangsu Province,Shanghai megacity and Zhejiang Province will decrease by 23. 24,18. 32,15. 17,9. 07 μg/m^3,respectively. From the response curves of PM2.5 concentration in the four provinces of the YRD region,the first emission factor is local primary PM2.5,the PM2.5 concentration drops significantly in the 20% to 50% reduction range for the local primary PM2.5 reduction,and the concentration curve tends to be flat after 60% reduction. For the other factors,the PM2.5 concentration decreased gradually after 40% reduction,and the response to the last emission factor was relatively flat.