相似案例比对法在空气质量精细化预报中的应用

2018年首届中国国际进口博览会期间,为开展精细化的空气质量保障预报,以2015年11月13-16日为相似案例,与2018年11月8-11日上海地区的天气要素和PM2.5浓度变化进行相似性分析。结果显示,2个案例中地表压强、地表温度、相对湿度、混合层高度和风向5项主要天气要素的相关系数为0. 66~0. 93,相似离度为0. 09~0. 26,PM2.5浓度的相关系数达0. 8左右,相似离度为0. 2。针对2015年案例的污染过程分析,不仅为2018年案例中的污染时段预报提供了参考,也为空气质量保障工作的管控决策提供了支持。

Application of Similar Case Comparison in Fine Air Quality Forecasting

In order to provide fine air quality forecasting information for the air quality guarantee during China International Import Expo in 2018,the similarities of meteorological factors and PM_2.5 concentrations in Shanghai were analyzed for two similar cases,which were from 13^th to 16^th November,2015 and from 8^th to 11^th November,2018,respectively. The results showed that the correlation coefficients of five main meteorological factors including surface pressure,surface temperature,relative humidity, mixed layer height and wind direction in these two cases ranged from 0.66 to 0.93 and the analog deviations ranged from 0.09 to 0.26. The correlation coefficient of PM_2.5 concentrations was about 0.8 and the analog deviation was 0.2. Analysis towards the pollution process in the case of 2015 could not only provide reference for forecasting the development of pollution event in the case of 2018,but also support the air pollution control decisions in the air quality guarantee.