空气质量多模式预报系统在中山市的应用

介绍了中山市空气质量多模式预报系统。对2015年3月—2016年2月的预报效果评估表明:系统可以较好地反映污染物的变化趋势但仍存在系统性偏差。通过对排放源清单的调整优化及对模式干沉降模块的改进使模式系统的偏差显著减小。总结并建立中山市污染天气案例库,发现在典型污染天气形势下,除O3-8 h外,其他污染物均值均能达到空气质量二级标准。未来将从2个方面提高中山市空气质量预报预警系统的实用性,包括逐步实现污染源排放清单的动态及时更新和提高极端气象条件下O3污染预报能力。

Application of Air Quality Multi-model Forecasting System in Zhongshan

The air quality multi-model forecasting system in Zhongshan was introdeced in this paper. Evaluation for the forecasting effects of observations from March 2015 to February 2016 showed that the forecasting system can reasonably reflect the variation of air pollutants, but systematic biases still existed. The model biases were significantly reduced through improvement of the model emissions and the dry deposition module of the NAQPMS model. Case database of the pollution-weather in Zhongshan was summarized and established. It was found that even under the typical adverseweather conditions, all air pollutants concentrations except O₃-8 h could meet the second grade of the air quality standard in China.It is recommended that two aspects should be paid more attention to improve the practicability of the air quality forecasting system in Zhongshan in the near future:Update the emission inventory dynamically and timely. Improve the ozone pollution prediction ability under extreme weather conditions.