对比分析法在环境空气质量预报业务中的应用

通过分析京津冀及周边区域环境空气质量预报的实际案例,从实时监测、污染源、大气条件以及数值预报模拟4个方面阐述了对比分析法在空气质量预报业务中的应用,帮助预报员比较类似污染源排放条件下的大气条件变化或者类似大气条件下的污染源变化,以便进一步开展量化分析。研究结果显示:利用时间同比、空间比较和大气条件对比的分析方法,能够判断在类似污染源排放和相似大气条件下,主要污染物的浓度水平、重污染发生、影响范围、持续时间、严重程度等污染特征以及污染物的水平传输影响等;采用污染源变化对比分析法,能够获得在类似大气条件下,污染源排放的减少或剧增对主要污染物浓度水平的影响程度;通过数值预报模式结果对比分析,能够获得在类似的污染源排放条件下,大气环流形势的稳定程度和变化情况,从而判断其对污染物浓度水平的影响。对比分析法是开展京津冀及周边区域环境空气质量预报业务中的重要环节,有利于持续提高空气质量预报的准确率,供全国空气质量预报员开展辖区空气质量预报时参考。

Application of the Comparison Method in the Air Quality Forecast

According to the experience of air quality forecasting in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding area, this study gives a brief introduction to the application of comparison method in the operational air quality forecast in four aspects, the real-time monitoring, emission sources of air pollution, atmospheric conditions, as well as numerical simulation. Hoping to help the forecaster analyze the changes of atmospheric conditions under similar emission sources of air pollution or changes of emission sources of air pollution under similar atmospheric conditions. The results show that using the comparisons of time, space and atmospheric conditions, the forecaster can gain the concentration level of main pollutants, the influence range, duration and severity of heavy pollutions, transmission effect of air pollutants under similar emission sources of air pollution and similar atmospheric conditions. Using the comparisons of emission sources of air pollution, the forecaster can obtain the influence of the concentrations of major pollutants level by reduction or increase of emission sources of air pollution under similar atmospheric conditions. Using the comparison of numerical simulation results, the forecaster can get the stabilities or changes of the atmospheric conditions under similar sources of air pollution emission. Comparison method is widely used in the air quality forecasting of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding area. It can help to improve the accuracy of air quality forecasting, and provide reference for the forecaster nationwide.