基于遥感和Markov模型的新疆生产建设兵团土地利用变化

通过对兵团土地利用空间格局变化分析,选择合适的土地利用政策保护生态环境。运用RS和GIS技术对兵团近10年土地利用/覆被变化及景观格局空间变化进行分析,并在此基础上运用Markov模型对未来30年土地利用变化进行预测。2000—2010年,新疆生产建设兵团景观多样性升高,连通性增强,形状愈来愈简单,景观格局整体变化不大;草地、灌丛、湿地、荒漠和冰川/永久积雪面积减少,耕地和城镇面积增加,森林保持稳定;人为干扰对土地利用结构的变化具有重要作用,土地利用强度受人为活动影响的同时受土地利用政策影响;在未来30年间耕地和城镇面积继续增加,除森林基本保持不变外其他土地利用类型均减小。兵团城镇用地与草地和耕地之间的矛盾逐渐显现,势必引起兵团生态格局的变化。因此,必须实行合适的土地利用政策保护环境。

The Land Utilization Changes of Xinjiang Production and Construction Group Based on RS and Markov Model

In this paper,the spatial pattern of land use change in Xinjiang corps were analyzed for selecting the appropriate land use policies to protect the ecological environment.The land use/cover and landscape pattern changes of production and construction corps nearly 10 years were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology, and land use change over the next 30 years was predicted on the basis of using the Markov model.In the past 10 years of Xinjiang production and construction corps, the landscape diversity turned higher, the connectivity have been enhanced, the shape became more simple, the whole landscape pattern have changed little.Meadows, thickets, wetland, desert and ice/permanent snow area reduced, arable land and urban area increased, the forest area maintained stable.Human disturbance plays an important role in the change of land use structure, and, land use intensity also affected by human activities as well as land using policies.The arable land and urban area will increase in next 30 years, other types of land will reduce except the basic forest which will remain unchanged.Corps of town land and grassland and arable land, the contradiction between appeared gradually, it is bound to cause some changes of ecological landscape.So we must implement the appropriate land using policies to protect the environment.