城市综合防灾应急能力可拓评价模型构建及应用

城市综合防灾应急能力可以衡量一个城市在面临灾害时的抗御能力及恢复能力,并且是辅助城市灾害决策的重要依据.以城市灾害发生时及其后所展开的各种紧急救援工作所涉及的城市防灾建设状况作为评价依据,按照一定的指标选取原则,构建出包括消防能力、避难安置能力、医疗救护能力、物资供应能力、治安防护能力、环卫能力、协调能力7个1级评价指标及17个2级评价指标的指标体系.根据国际通用或相关规范规定的救灾资源配置标准进行等级划分,利用可拓学理论及其特点建立可拓评价模型.并将评价模型应用于长沙城市综合防灾应急能力的评价,得出长沙市城市综合防灾应急能力等级为"差",以及长沙需要重点加强的指标:消防车数量、人均避难面积、城市综合防灾管理体系完备度.

Establishment of the extended assessment model of the comprehensive urban disaster-prevention and emergency-response capability and its application

The paper aims to introduce an extended assessment model of comprehensive urban disaster-prevention and emergency-response capability proposed by us author. In the paper, we have also analyzed the appropriate way on how to bring the model into practical application in accordance with the actual situation of the disaster prevention and the various emergency relief measures to be taken. According to the model we have proposed 7 first-grade assessment indexes to be taken into consideration, including the fire-fighting capabilities, shelter-placement capability, medical care capability, material resource-supplying capability, on-spot security and protection capability, environmental sanitation maintenance measures, and that of coordination of the efforts and supports coming from the corresponding organizations and social forces. The 7 assessment indexes in the given model should include all the 17 secondary assessing indexes altogether. The assessment model has been established here in the paper by choosing a reasonable related function, the extension theory and its characteristic for the model by using the above selected indexes actually on the basis of the international norms of the allocation of resources which is widely used for the time being. However, the above said indexes of the comprehensive urban disaster prevention and emergency response capabilities cannot on the whole put in the same range, though the model can indeed help to solve the problem of disaster prevention and emergency response capacity commendably. And, finally, the assessment model had been used in Changsha city, Hunan, comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency response capability. The results of our case application in Changsha show that: the city's comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency response capacity has to be elevated. The reason is that the current grade of the city's comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency response capability belongs to the " poor-grade". It can also be said that the assessing results can remind the city of strengthening the following indexes : the number of fire-fighting engines, the shelter area per capita , the entire degree of management system of its comprehensive disaster prevention.