| 危险品区多米诺效应的风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永强,刘茂,穆青.危险品区多米诺效应的风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永强 刘茂 穆青 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划
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| 摘 要： | 根据多米诺效应的特点,提出了一种针对危险品区域的多米诺效应的风险分析方法.通过多米诺效应事故场景的辨识、设备的概率损坏模型和多米诺分析技术,分析区域内所有危险设备的多米诺效应风险指数和设备在多米诺事故链中的传播作用,定量分析多米诺事故后果.通过该方法可以得到区域内设备的多米诺效应风险指数和多米诺事故的后果风险.通过该方法可建立起区域的安全防范措施,从而有效预防潜在的多米诺效应,降低事故风险.
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| 关 键 词： | 安全技术及工程 多米诺效应 事故场景 定量风险分析 概率模型 |
On the quantitative hazard domino effect analysis with potentially dangerous materials |
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| ZHANG Yong-qiang,LIU Mao,MU Qing.On the quantitative hazard domino effect analysis with potentially dangerous materials[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(6). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yong-qiang LIU Mao MU Qing |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Yong-qiang,LIU Mao,MU Qing(Researcher Center of Urban Public Safety,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China) |
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| Abstract: | The present paper is inclined to introduce the authors' study of domino effect in the hazard-prone chemical or any other materials. As is known,domino effect is a kind of complicated phenomena that may lead to severe accidents in processing industry,which can and in many cases do serve as the cause to lead secondary accidents in nearby related installations or the surrounding industrial businesses. Academically speaking,domino effect is also referred to as the so-called knock-on effect,cascade effect or esc... |
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| Keywords: | safety technology and engineering domino effect accident scene quantitative risk analysis probability model |
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