基于犹豫直觉模糊集-TOPSIS的危险品多式联运风险评估

为了对危险品的多式联运系统风险进行评估,首先在"人、机、管、环"4M理论的基础上,将多式联运中"转运"这一特殊流程考虑进去,以"人、机、管、环、转运"这5个因素作为决策问题中的属性;其次,采用犹豫直觉模糊语言集为决策者的初始决策矩阵赋值,并利用均值-标准差的汉明距离来衡量两个犹豫直觉模糊语言数之间的距离;然后,以危险品多式联运系统中的风险为标准,采用基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集的TOPSIS方法进行不同方案的决策。最后,以磷酸在宜昌-衢州之间的运输为案例,对4种常用运输方案进行风险评估,以综合评价指数进行对比。结果表明,在先水路后铁路、先水路后公路、先公路后铁路、先铁路后公路4种方案中,从宜昌到衢州之间先公路后铁路的运输方式所得综合评价值最高,应选择方案3。

Security risk assessment for the risk cargos transportation in the multimodal transfer based on the hesitative intuitionistic fuzzy set-TOPSIS

The paper intends to take first of all the special process of "transshipment" in the multimodal transportation system into account on the basis of the 4M theory,known as "the man,the machine, the management and the environment",and,then,takes the 5 factors of "man,machine,management,environment and transshipment" as the attributes of the decisionmaking criteria,so as to assess the risk of the multimodal transportation system of the dangerous goods. And,next,it has assigned the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set as the initial decision-making matrix,so as to gain the score function and the exact function of the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set via the linguistic scaling function. And,then,it would be possible to gain the size of the 2 hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic numbers by comparing the sizes of the 2 functions. And,since the score function and the exact function are equal,the hamming distance of the mean-standard deviation preference can be used to measure the size of the 2 hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic numbers. And,thirdly,based on the ranking results of the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic numbers,it would be possible to calculate and determine the positive and negative ideal solutions. And,simultaneously,the distance from the scheme to the positive ideal solution can be calculated by using the negative ideal solution of the hamming distance. Moreover,the distance ratio from the scheme to the negative ideal solution can be taken as the comprehensive evaluation index to decide the different schemes with the TOPSIS method. Thus,finally,taking the transportation distance of the phosphoric acid between Yichang and Quzhou as a case study example,the risk assessment of the4 common transportation schemes can be worked out through calculation of the comprehensive evaluation index. The results prove that in comparison of the comprehensive evaluation indexes of the above said 4 schemes,the comprehensive evaluation cost and value of the highway first and then railway transport from Yichang to Zhangzhou should be most realistic and rational. Therefore,among the 4 candidates for choice,scheme 3 should be chosen as the best and optimistic.