改进的DEMATEL法在航空公司外委维修安全风险分析中的应用

为有效识别和分析外委维修安全风险因素间复杂的影响关系,提出了群决策DEMATEL分析方法。该方法以语言变量和三角模糊数之间的转换为基础,通过群决策理论集结专家信息建立直接影响矩阵;利用DEMATEL分析法对外委维修的安全风险因素进行辨识,实现定性定量相结合的分析。以某航空公司为例,采用该方法分析了14个对外委维修安全影响显著的风险因素。结果表明,在外委维修过程中,航空公司和承修商应重点监控7个原因型因素和中心度排序靠前的6个因素。

Improved DEMETAL law and its application to the safety risk analysis of the air carriers' maintenance outsourcing branches

In order to identify and analyze the complicated interrelated influence among the risk factors of the maintenance outsourcing branches effectively,the paper has brought about an analytic method for the group decision known as the DEMATEL.Furthermore,we have improved the method for decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMETAL) mainly by using the group decision-making theory in hoping to enhance the objectivity of DEMATEL analysis.In so doing,we have first of all adopted a triangle fuzzy number to work out the linguistic variable quantitatively in accordance with the theory of fuzzy mathematics.And,then,based on the converted results between the linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy number,we have established a direct relationship matrix of the DEMETAL analysis in combination with the information and data provided through the expertise as a result gained on the practical application of the group decision-making theory.And,finally,we have identified and confirmed the maintenance safety risk factors through classification of the causal relations as a result of application of the DEMATEL method,and managed to transfer the qualitative and quantitative analysis results into reality.Taking for example an airline that has adopted the above mentioned method for analyzing the 14 risk factors,the analysis results show that the airlines and the air-service suppliers should mainly inspect and monitor the above-mentioned seven factors in the process of maintenance outsourcing,which can represent the integrity of the safety service system,the supervision of the aircraft maintenance,the qualification standardization and forceful training of the maintenance service trainees,the gradual amelioration of the maintenance facilities,the applicability enhancement of the technical schemes,the checkout and management of the tool equipment and the trustful management of the aviation materials.Similarly,both sides of the contract signers should also take the six factors of the central order into consideration,which are directly concerned with the persistence of the maintenance quality,the take-off conditions of airworthiness,the retention and handling of the faults likely to be taking place,the supervision of the aircraft and the corresponding equipment as well as the facilities maintenance,the guarantee and management of the aviation materials and the integrity of the safety system.All the results mentioned above,if put into strict monitoring and supervision,can beexpected to provide the reference for the civil aviation administration of China's Airline Companies to build up a strong and powerful supervision and maintenance outsourcing system effectively and efficiently.