弹性系数视角下风险耦合特性的仿真分析

风险耦合导致风险发生非线性演化,从而给风险的定量评估带来困难。为给出风险耦合控制的有效对策,基于弹性系数视角界定风险耦合弹性系数概念,以此实现对风险耦合强度的定量测度;基于装备研制项目设计论证环节,从风险测度指标节点裕度角度,采用Arena软件仿真分析单指标和全指标在线性和非线性耦合关系下的系统风险熵和后传风险熵的变化情况。结果表明,全指标非线性耦合会显著改变系统性能,而单指标非线性耦合和全指标线性耦合次之,欲实现风险耦合控制应极力制止全局性的非线性耦合关系。

Simulation analysis of the risk coupling features in view of the perspectives of elasticity coefficients

The present article is to introduce its simulation analysis of the risk coupling features in view of the perspectives of the elasticity coefficients.As is known,risk coupling involves extremely significant liabilities that tend to lead to risk catastrophe during a risk transfer process,in which the risk coupling may precipitate a nonlinear risk evolution,thus,making the quantitative risk assessment more complicated and illogic.Therefore,in this article,we would like to illustrate necessary notions of accident systems,define the interactive factors and the interrelation among the different risk factors or indices in the coupling,so as to identify and define the risk coupling elasticity coefficients based on the effective risk control measures of such elasticity coefficients.To show some practical instances on how to use the risk coupling elasticity coefficient model,the paper has done an analysis on the risk coupling between the scheduled risk (with five estimate indices) and the cost risk (with four estimate indices) from the point of view of the risk-measuring index node margin (the capability to resist the risks) based on the device and means development of the project design and demonstration links.Furthermore,an Arena software has been adopted to simulate for the change in the system risk entropy and transfer risk entropy when the coupling is done with a single index and/or lots of indices in the linear and nonlinear systems.The simulation results we have done prove that the linear coupling of a single index does not change the system risk entropy,neither can it transfer the risk entropy,which can explain why the linear coupling of the single index node margins does not change the system risk treatment capability.Nevertheless,even in a linear coupling manner,in case it involves a large-scale coupling interaction,it would be possible to change the system performance to a certain extent.On the other hand,a nonlinear coupling of a single index may also lead to misunderstanding and difficult analysis of the system performance.And,furthermore,the nonlinear coupling of all the indices can be the most sensitive parameter that tends to affect the system performance significantly,therefore,it is necessary to guard against the global nonlinear coupled manners.And,hancefore,the above results can be taken as the groundwork for further studies of the complex system risk evolution features and the development of risk coupling control tactics.