铁路运输经济预警系统的研究

铁路运输经济安全是国民经济安全的基础。建立综合运用现代科技手段的运输经济预警系统 ,对调控铁路运输和引导铁路运输业安全、健康发展十分重要。笔者将铁路作为国民经济的子系统 ,考虑国民经济对铁路的影响因素。在分析铁路运输经济的影响因素和景气预警指标的基础上 ,利用BP神经网络预测出下季度铁路运输经济预警指标的值 ,用景气信号监测模型对预测值进行分析并显示该季度的预警信号 ,直观地评价铁路运输经济的安全状态。运用铁路运输经济预警系统分析了 2 0 0 3年第一季度～ 2 0 0 4年第一季度 ,5个季度的景气信号 ,并对 2 0 0 4年第二季度的各项指标进行预测和景气分析 ,对系统进行了实用和考核 ,取得预期效果。

Study on Alert System of Railway Transportation Economy

Security in railway transportation economy is the foundation of national economy security. The alert system of railway transportation economy based on comprehensive modern science and technology is significant in adjusting and leading the security of railway transportation. Regarding the railway transportation as the subsystem of the national economy, the impact of national economy on railway is taken into account. Based on the analysis of the influential factors and the prosperity indices of railway transportation economy, the value of alert indices is predicted by the BP neural network, which is analyzed by prosperity signal monitoring model to show the alert signal of that season so as to directly evaluate the secure state of transportation economy. The alert system is used to analyze the prosperity signals of five seasons from Jan. 2003 to Jan. 2004, and to predict the values of these indices and prosperity analysis of the 2nd season of 2004, expected effectiveness is obtained.