| 基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈国华,施文松,赵远飞.基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(7):141-146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈国华 施文松 赵远飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学 机械与汽车工程学院安全科学与工程研究所,广东 广州,510640 |
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| 摘 要： | 为加强化工园区风险辨识和布局优化,主要研究化工园区布局优化决策支持系统。在分析该系统主要功能的基础上,介绍基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统的理论模型:对化工园区重大危险源事故预测建模,包括重大危险源事故发生概率预测和事故后果预测;从个人风险、社会风险和财产风险3个模型评价化工园区区域动态风险,依据这3种风险值,计算区域综合风险;分别就功能区布局、消防布局和交通布局,对化工园区提出动态布局优化方法和建议措施。通过理论模型建立决策系统软件,结合实证分析,证明该决策支持系统的合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 化工园区 事故预测 动态风险评价 布局优化 决策支持系统 |
Layout Optimization Decision Support System of Chemical Industry Park Based on Risk |
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| CHEN Guo-hua
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SHI Wen-song
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ZHAO Yuan-fei.Layout Optimization Decision Support System of Chemical Industry Park Based on Risk[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(7):141-146. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Guo-hua SHI Wen-song ZHAO Yuan-fei |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Safety Science & Engineering,School of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering, South China University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China) |
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| Abstract: | A chemical industry park layout optimization decision support system was researched in order that its risk identification and layout optimization can be enhanced.The system’s theoretical models which are based on risk were showed: The model of major hazards accident forecast which included the accident’s probability and consequences was constructed;the area dynamic risk of chemical industry park was assessed in personal risk,society risk and property risk,the comprehensive risk was calculated based on the three kinds of risk;optimization methods and countermeasures about dynamic layout in the areas of function,fire control and transportation were put forward.The decision system software was developed based on theoretical models.Living example analysis showed that the system was rational. |
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| Keywords: | chemical industry park accident prediction tendency risk assessment layout optimization decision support system |
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