危险化学品运输事故历史数据研究综述

系统地回顾国内外近20 a来的危险化学品运输事故历史数据分析的理论和方法,旨在为我国今后危险化学品运输风险研究提供指导。调研国内外危险化学品运输事故研究的历史数据来源,介绍该领域的主要研究方法及其发展过程,讨论现有研究内容及研究结果的共性和特征。发现现有研究主要集中于危险化学品的道路运输,侧重于分析运输事故的主要影响因素,经济损失、次生灾害及事故数与运输批次的关联方面的研究不足。提出要把事故后果的科学衡量作为未来的研究方向。

Review on Historical Analysis of Accidents in the Transportation of Hazardous Materials

In order to promote risk research on hazardous chemicals transport,theories about and methods for historical analysis of accidents in the transportation of hazardous materials at home and abroad in the recent twenty years were reviewed systematically.Firstly,the sources of the history data used in articles were explored.Then,main research methods and their development process in this field were introduced.In addition,characteristics in each research were discussed.It was found that existing research mainly focuses on the road transport of hazardous chemicals,that analyzing major factors resulting in the accidents was emphasized,and that economic loss,secondary disasters and the relationship between accidents and shipments were not analyzed sufficiently.It was held that scientific evaluation of consequences of the accidents should be taken as the direction of further research.