城市公共安全系统可靠性研究

城市公共安全体系由诸多子系统组成 ,其功能的实现依赖于城市公共安全系统的整体可靠性。笔者采用组合功能分析和过程分解的方法 ,对城市公共安全系统的功能、结构和组成进行了讨论 ;应用结构化功能-事件树的混合方法对城市公共安全系统的可靠性特征进行了定性分析 ;建立了城市公共安全系统可靠性模型 ,相应的数学模型可作为城市公共安全保障工作中预防为主的科学依据。据此可以得出 :城市公共安全系统中事故和灾害预防子系统的地位应优于事故预警、应急反应和灾害控制等后处理环节的结论 ,同时可以给出了城市规划中公共安全系统设计的建议。

Investigation of the Reliability of Municipal Public Security System

Municipal public security system composed of many sub-systems. The realization of its function depended on the reliability of the system as a whole. The function,structure and its component were discussed by combined function analysis and process decomposition approach. The qualitative analysis of the reliability characteristics of municipal public security was conducted by the mixed approach of structured function-event tree. A corresponding mathematic model was established,which could be taken as the scientific criteria for implementing“prevention first” policy in municipal public security. From the result it could be seen that the position of the sub-system for accident and disaster prevention should be prior to accident pre-warning,emergency response and disaster control in the main system. The suggestion for designing the public security system in city planning is provided.