基于实物期权博弈的安全投资决策研究综述

回顾安全投资理论的发展历程,分析研究现状,归纳相关研究文献,指出理论研究方面主要存在的"安全投资决策评价方法亟待创新;安全投资评价方法忽略了外部竞争性、未来不确定性、不可逆性、长期性和潜在性等因素;实物期权博弈理论还未形成完整的体系"3个问题。提出解决问题的对策:给出安全投资战略期权博弈分析的思路,建立不确定条件下安全投资战略项目的价值模型,概括出安全投资战略实物期权博弈分析的理论框架以及理论依据、分析工具和分析步骤。指出了安全投资理论的研究趋势。基于实物期权博弈的安全投资决策,使安全投资项目的管理柔性价值和战略价值得到准确的衡量。

Overview on Decision-making Research in Safety Investment Based on Real-option-games

By reviewing the development process of safety investment theories and summarizing the related literatures,3 problems in theoretical research on safety investment are firstly pointed out,namely,decision-making methods in safety investment need innovation;safety investment assessment methods ignore such factors as external competition,future uncertainty,irreversibility,chronicity and potentials;real-option-games theories don't form complete system.Then,some countermeasures are put forth.Analysis thread for option games in safety investment strategy is given.The value model of safety investment strategy project under uncertain conditions is set up.The theoretical framework,theoretical basis,analysis tools and analysis steps of real-option-games analysis in safety investment strategy are summarized.Finally,the trends in safety investment theories are pointed out.This study realizes the accurate measurement of flexible value and strategic value in safety investment.