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| 危险化学品泄漏事故点火概率取值研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 袁雄军,朱常龙,葛秀坤,任常兴,王凯全.危险化学品泄漏事故点火概率取值研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(9). |
| 作者姓名： | 袁雄军 朱常龙 葛秀坤 任常兴 王凯全 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 常州大学环境与安全工程学院,江苏常州,213164 2. 南京工业大学城市建设与安全工程学院,江苏南京,210009 3. 公安部天津消防研究所火灾理论科室,天津,300381 |
| 摘 要： | 为计算危险化学品泄漏后发生火灾、爆炸等事故的概率,提高风险评估的量化水平,对点火概率的取值进行研究。从模型计算和直接取参考值2个方面探讨点火概率的取值问题,提出不同情形下的取值建议,并结合案例应用对点火概率2种取值方法进行对比分析研究。研究结果表明:点火概率模型计算不确定性较大且适用性有限,而直接取值的参考值均由一系列事件统计而得出,具有一定的科学性,实际取值更倾向于根据经验数据或已有的数据进行取值,但取值时需要充分考虑实际情况(如安全条件等)进行适当的修正,以便取值更科学。 |
| 关 键 词： | 危险化学品 泄漏 火灾 点火概率 蒸气云爆炸 立即点火 延迟点火 |
Study on Values Taking of Ignition Probabilities in Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accidents |
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| YUAN Xiong-jun,ZHU Chang-long,GE Xiu-kun,REN Chang-xing,WANG Kai-quan.Study on Values Taking of Ignition Probabilities in Hazardous Chemical Leakage Accidents[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(9). | |
| Authors: | YUAN Xiong-jun ZHU Chang-long GE Xiu-kun REN Chang-xing WANG Kai-quan |
| Institution: | YUAN Xiong-jun1 ZHU Chang-long2 GE Xiu-kun1 REN Chang-xing3 WANG Kai-quan1(1 School of Environment & Safety Engineering,Changzhou University,Changzhou Jiangsu 213164,China 2 School of Urban Construction & Safety Engineering,Nanjing University of Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210009,China 3 Fire Fundamental Research Division,Tianjin Fire Research Institute of MPS,Tianjin 300381,China) |
| Abstract: | In order to calculate accident probabilities of fire and explosion after dangerous chemicals leaking and improve the quantification level of risk assessment,the value taking for ignition probabilities was researched based on the domestic and foreign literatures.Firstly,the value taking for ignition probabilities was discussed from calculation models and direct reference value,and some advice for taking value under different situation was proposed.Then through an example,a verification and comparative analys... |
| Keywords: | hazardous chemicals leakage fire disaster ignition probability vapor cloud explosion immediate ignition delayed ignition |
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