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| 应用改进的数量化理论预测道路断面事故率 | |
| 引用本文： | 秦利燕,秦玉权,邵春福,张萌.应用改进的数量化理论预测道路断面事故率[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11). |
| 作者姓名： | 秦利燕 秦玉权 邵春福 张萌 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 山东交通学院交通与物流工程系,山东济南,250023 2. 山东交通职业学院管理与信息系,山东潍坊,261206 3. 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金资助，国家重点基础研究发展计划资助，山东交通学院自然基金资助 |
| 摘 要： | 为准确预测道路断面的安全性,建立道路交通事故断面事故率模型。首先选定事故率作为微观预测目标,选取驾驶员的驾龄、车道数、平曲线半径、纵坡度、路面情况、路口路段类型、道路宽度7项因素作为主要影响因素,并且将各影响因素分为若干类目。在数量化理论的基础之上建立改进的数量化理论的道路断面事故率预测模型,最后以某国道222.888～377.387 km段作为算例进行计算,并选取事故多发段333.5～334.0 km处对模型进行具体应用。研究结果表明,对事故影响最大的是该路段中三枝交叉口,其次是3 a(含3 a)以下驾龄及四枝交叉口。 |
| 关 键 词： | 道路安全 道路交通事故 数量化理论 断面事故率 预测 |
Application of Improved Quantitative Theory in Prediction of Road Section Accident Rate |
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| QINLi-yan,QIN Yu-quan,SHAO Chun-fu,ZHANG Meng.Application of Improved Quantitative Theory in Prediction of Road Section Accident Rate[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(11). | |
| Authors: | QINLi-yan QIN Yu-quan SHAO Chun-fu ZHANG Meng |
| Institution: | QIN Li-yan1 QIN Yu-quan2 SHAO Chun-fu3 ZHANG Meng1(1 Department of Transportation & Logistics,Shandong Jiaotong University,Ji'nan Shandong 250023,China 2 School of Management & Information,Shandong Transport Vocational College,Weifang Shandong 261206,China 3 School of Traffic & Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China) |
| Abstract: | Traffic accident prediction model is built to accurately judge the traffic safety of road sections in this paper.Firstly,accident rate of road section is selected as the prediction objective,and seven factors,including driving years,number of lanes,radius of horizontal curve,longitudinal grade,road surface status,type of intersection and width of road surface,are selected as major influencing factors,which are further classified into many items.Then based on quantitative theories,an improved traffic acciden... |
| Keywords: | road safety road traffic accident quantitative theory road section accident rate prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |