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| 基于累积Logistic模型的交通事故严重程度时空分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 马壮林,邵春福,董春娇,王抢.基于累积Logistic模型的交通事故严重程度时空分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(9). |
| 作者姓名： | 马壮林 邵春福 董春娇 王抢 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安,710064 2. 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京,100044 3. 田纳西大学交通研究中心,田纳西美国37996 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划，高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金，长安大学基础研究支持计划专项资金 |
| 摘 要： | 交通事故的发生具有随机性和偶然性,为尽可能地降低交通事故的伤害程度,根据某高速公路典型事故多发段的交通事故统计资料,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,从时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等因素中初步选择12个候选自变量,采用混合逐步选择法分析候选自变量与因变量是否显著相关。采用累积Logistic模型建立交通事故严重程度时空分析模型,并从成比例检验、拟合优度检验和预测准确度检验3个方面对模型进行检验。研究结果表明:事故发生时段、季节因素、发生地点、道路线形、坡度、事故涉及车辆数和日标准交通量与年平均日交通量之比与交通事故严重程度显著相关。 |
| 关 键 词： | 交通安全 交通事故严重程度 时空分析 累积Logistic模型 混合逐步选择法 |
Temporal-spatial Analysis Model of Traffic Accident Severity Based on Cumulative Logistic Model |
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| MA Zhuang-lin,SHAO Chun-fu,DONG Chun-jiao,WANG Qiang.Temporal-spatial Analysis Model of Traffic Accident Severity Based on Cumulative Logistic Model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(9). | |
| Authors: | MA Zhuang-lin SHAO Chun-fu DONG Chun-jiao WANG Qiang |
| Institution: | MA Zhuang-lin1 SHAO Chun-fu2 DONG Chun-jiao3 WANG Qiang1(1 School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China 2 MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China 3 Center for Transportation Research,The University of Tennessee,TN 37996,USA) |
| Abstract: | The occurrence of traffic accidents has the randomicity and contingency,this article attempts to make a research on the rules of traffic accidents to minimize the severity of traffic accidents.Firstly,according to the statistical data of a typical accident-prone section,accident severity was selected as the dependent variable,and twelve factors from the three aspects of time,road spatial structure and traffic environment were selected as the candidate independent variables.Then,the combined stepwise method ... |
| Keywords: | traffic safety traffic accident severity temporal-spatial analysis cumulative Logistic model combined stepwise method |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |