基于多因素耦合的山区道路系统脆弱性评估

为降低山区道路交通事故的发生率,保障交通系统运行过程的安全,针对山区道路的特点及安全隐患,以多因素耦合作用下的事故致因理论为基础,全面准确地分析和辨识山区道路系统脆弱性影响因素,建立山区道路系统脆弱性评估指标体系;考虑到山区道路系统中的诸多不确定问题,引入未确知测度理论,构建基于多因素耦合的熵权-未确知测度理论的山区道路系统脆弱性评估模型,并将模型应用于5个工程实例中,确定其脆弱性程度及排序。研究结果表明:该模型评估结果与实际情况吻合度较高,误差在可接受范围内,能为山区道路交通安全的管理和控制提供决策依据。

Vulnerability assessment of mountainous road system based on multiple-factor coupling

In order to reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents in mountainous areas and ensure the safety of the operation process of the traffic system,factors influencing mountains road system vulnerability were analyzed and identified comprehensively on the basis of the accident causation theory under multifactor coupling,and a vulnerability assessment index system for mountains road system was established considering the characteristics and potential safety hazards of mountains road. Then,in light of many uncertainties in mountains road system,the uncertainty measure theory was introduced and a vulnerability assessment model of mountains road system based on the entropy weight-uncertainty measure theory by multiple-factor coupling was constructed. The model was applied to five engineering cases,and the vulnerability levels and rankings were determined. The results show that evaluation results of the model are in good agreement with the actual situation and the error is acceptable,and that the proposed model can provide decision-making basis for the management and control of mountains road traffic safety.