不同初始条件的UGM(1,1)管道腐蚀预测建模研究

为研究非等间距灰色模型(UGM(1,1))的初始条件对管道腐蚀预测的影响,首先,探讨现有4种不同初始条件的UGM(1,1)管道腐蚀预测模型的建模步骤;其次,融合新陈代谢和新信息优先原理的建模思想,对现有的初始条件进行优化,建立初始条件滑动的非等间距管道腐蚀预测灰色模型(SUGM(1,1,ρ));最后,以某海洋立管为例,预测其腐蚀速率,对比分析SUGM(1,1,ρ)模型和现有4种不同初始条件的UGM(1,1)模型的预测效果,验证SUGM(1,1,ρ)模型的有效性。结果表明:用现有4种不同初始条件的UGM(1,1)管道腐蚀速率预测模型所得预测结果的平均相对误差分别为3. 16%、3. 35%、3. 49%和3. 36%,用SUGM(1,1,ρ)模型所得预测结果的平均相对误差为1. 77%。

Study on UGM(1,1) modeling for prediction of pipes corrosion under different initial conditions

In order to study the influence of the initial condition for unequal interval grey models ( UGM )(1,1) on pipeline corrosion prediction, firstly, the modeling steps of unequal interval pipeline corrosion prediction grey model under different initial conditions were discussed, secondly, aiming at solving the problem of selection of initial conditions in the traditional unequal interval pipeline corrosion prediction grey model, a sliding unequal interval grey pipeline corrosion prediction model ( SUGM( 1,1 ,ρ)) under a sliding initial condition was built up by combing the ideas of metabolism and new information priority principle. Finally, the models were used to predict the pipeline corrosion of a certain marine riser as an example, and a comparison was made between the prediction effects of SUGM ( 1, 1 ,ρ) model and the unequal interval pipeline corrosion prediction grey models under different initial conditions. The effectiveness of SUGM( 1, 1 ,ρ) model was verified. The results show that the average relative errors of predicted results obtained by using four unequal interval pipeline corrosion rate prediction grey models under different initial conditions are 3. 16%, 3. 35%, 3. 49% and 3.36%, and that obtained by using SUGM( 1,1 ,ρ) model is 1.77%.