道路交通安全统计生命价值评价研究:基于四边界二分式条件价值法

为提高道路交通安全统计生命价值( VOSL)评估的精确性和可靠性,提出基于四边界二分式条件价值法( CVM)的VOSL 评价模型,并进行实证研究获得VOSL 评估值。基于四边界二分式选择问卷格式设计CVM 调查问卷,利用多项Logit 模型基本原理构建四边界二分式VOSL 评价模型;以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施交通意向调查,利用GAUSS 软件进行模型参数标定和显著性检验;最终获得VOSL 评估值,并进行VOSL 影响因素分析。结果表明:道路交通VOSL 评估值为231. 08 万元;四边界二分式CVM 调查问卷更能模拟市场定价过程,四边界二分式VOSL 评价模型具有更高的精确性;道路交通VOSL 与学历、家庭月收入显著正相关。

Evaluation study on VOSL in road traffic safety based on quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM

In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of VOSL assessment in road traffic safety,an evaluation model on VOSL was established based on the quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM,and empirical studies were carried out to obtain the estimated value. Firstly,CVM questionnaire was designed by using the quadruple-bound dichotomous format and VOSL evaluation model was built on account of the principles of multinomial Logit model. Then a survey,targeting at private car drivers in Dalian,was conducted to investigate their transportation interests,and parameters calibration and significance tests were accomplished by means of Gauss. Finally,VOSL was estimated and influencing factors were analyzed. The study results indicate that VOSL in road traffic is estimated to be 2 310 800 yuan. The CVM questionnaire based on quadruple-bound dichotomous format performs better in simulating the process of market pricing,and the VOSL evaluation model based on quadruple-bound dichotomous method features higher accuracy. Moreover,VOSL in road traffic safety maintains a remarkably positive correlation with education background and monthly income of the family.