高速公路隧道群交通事故风险致因分析

通过对高速公路隧道群特殊地理环境所造成的交通事故后果风险与救援时间的相关分析,提出隧道群交通事故风险致因模型,该模型将隧道群交通事故风险划分3个风险阶段,即初始事故风险、事故发展风险、最终事故风险,不同阶段的风险值受人的因素、车辆因素、隧道群环境因素和防灾救援能力大小的影响而改变。通过对隧道群的风险因素分析,认为隧道群在两毗邻隧道间将可能产生烟雾风险,驾驶人员视觉快速转换的照明风险,以及交通事故防灾控制风险;同时统计的隧道群防灾救援时间概率分布表明,救援队伍能在一定时间内快速到达事故现场,并对较晚到达事故现场救援情况,基于风险分析而提出相应的防范对策和措施。

Analysis on Risk Causation of Traffic Accidents in Expressway Tunnel Group

The correlation of rescue time and traffic accident risk caused by special geographical environments of tunnel group on freeway is explored. The risk causation model for traffic accidents in tunnel group is put forward,which is divided into three risk phases,including initial accident risk phase,developing accident risk phase and final accident risk phase. And the accident risk values in different phases will vary with persons,vehicles,tunnel group environments and disaster prevention and rescue ability. According to the analysis on risk factors of tunnel group,it was considered that there possibly exists smog-producing risk between two adjacent tunnels,illumination risk of driver's fast vision transferring,and disaster preventing and controlling risk of traffic accident. In addition,statistics on the probability distribution of disaster rescue time shows that rescue team could fast arrive at accident site within certain time. Finally,for the late rescue situation,some countermeasures are presented on the basis of risk analysis.