基于复杂系统的民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究

民族地区非常规突发事件属罕见非常规突发事件,是典型的复杂系统。传统的应急管理模式不能适应这类具有非线性复杂系统特征的罕见非常规突发事件的应急管理需求。因此,应该将民族地区的各类民族因素和社会特征作为民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究的基础变量,并进行复杂性分析,进而构建民族地区非常规突发事件演化规律的可视化仿真模型,然后在PeMS(平行应急管理系统)的基础上实现对该类突发事件应急管理机制的评估、反馈与改进。

Research on Emergency Management of Unconventional Emergencies in Ethnic Areas Based on Complex System

Unconventional emergency in ethnic areas,as a rare one,is a typical complex system.Due to it,the traditional emergency management model can not meet emergency management needs of rare unconventional emergencies with non-linear complex system characteristics.So,social and ethnic characteristics in ethnic areas should be taken into account as research variables,and complexity analysis should be made.And then,visual simulation model of evolution of unconventional emergency in ethnic areas should be constructed.And,assessment,feedback and improvement of non-traditional emergency management mechanism for unconventional emergencies in ethnic areas should be made based on PeMS(Parallel Emergency Management Systems).