基于DHGF算法和三角模糊数的装备研制风险评价

针对风险管理方法难以对装备研制风险进行有效评价的问题,提出基于DHGF算法和三角模糊数的装备研制风险评价方法。运用德尔菲法建立装备研制风险的综合评价指标体系。基于三角模糊数和层次分析法(AHP)计算评价指标的权重。利用灰色系统理论确定评价灰类,计算灰色评价系数,得出灰色评价权向量和权矩阵。形成综合评判矩阵,进行模糊运算,求得综合评价结果。算例表明,该方法可有效用于装备研制风险的评价。

Risk Assessment for Equipment Developing and Manufacturing Based on DHGF Algorithm and Triangular Fuzzy Number

According to the fact that the current risk management methods can't effectively assess the risks in equipment projects,a new risk assessment method is proposed based on DHGF(Delphi,analytic hierarchy progress,gray interconnect and fuzzy evaluation) algorithm and triangular fuzzy number.The comprehensive evaluation index system for equipment development risk is established by Delphi technique.Triangular fuzzy number and AHP are adopted to ascertain the weight of each index.In virtue of the gray theory,the gray clustering of assessment is established,the gray assessment coefficients are calculated,and the gray assessment weight vector and weight matrix are gained.Thus,the integrated evaluation matrix is formed,and the assessment result can be gotten by fuzzy operation.The example demonstrates that this method can be effectively used in the risk assessment of equipment developing and manufacturing.