基于概率影响图的R&D项目风险传导评估模型

为实现R&D项目风险的有效管理,需要对风险的传导特性进行量化评估。基于传导能量理论,利用概率影响图方法,从拓扑层、函数层和数值层构建了R&D项目风险传导评估模型。分析表明:该模型对项目风险传导量化研究具有较强的适用性;数据采集简便,模型的评估精度取决于信息的完全性;通过应用过程中的模型简化,在一定程度上能够提高模型的实用性。最后考虑项目管理者的决策因素,在评估模型基础上设计了R&D项目风险传导评估框架。

An Assessment Model for R&D Project Risk Conduction Based on Probability Influence Diagram

For the effective risk management of R&D project,the risk conduction characteristic needs to be evaluated quantitatively.Based on conductive energy theory,the probability influence diagram method was applied,and the R&D project risk conduction model was established from topology layer,functional layer and numerical layer.Analysis on the model shows that it is applicable to the quantitative research on project risk conduction;data collection is convenient and the assessment precision depends on the perfectib...