对杭州市部分自然灾害应急预案完备性评价的实证研究

采用故障树分析方法,从灾害的预防与应急准备、监测与预警、应急响应、后期处理4个方面,对2008年以前杭州市编制的部分自然灾害应急预案的完备度进行评价。结果表明:各类自然灾害应急预案的完备度不一,一些应急预案具有较高的完备度,而一些应急预案完备度偏低;大部分应急预案在灾害监测与预警方面具有较高的完备度,部分应急预案在灾害预防与应急准备、灾害后期处理完备度偏低;各应急预案中志愿者队伍的建设、灾害风险评价、应急人员的安全防护、灾后的保险理赔、重要设施的安全防护、启动应急避难场所等基本事件的缺失率较高,反映了部分应急预案编制过程中灾害全过程管理理念的缺失。

Case Study on the Completeness Evaluation of Part of the Emergency Plans for Natural Disasters in Hangzhou City

From four aspects of "preventive preparedness,disaster monitoring and early-warning,emergency response and post-disaster recovery",a fault tree was developed to evaluate the completeness of some natural disaster emergency plans developed before 2008 in Hangzhou,Zhejiang Province. The results showed that the completeness of each emergency planning existed obvious difference;some had high completeness,but others had low completeness. Most of the emergency planning had high completeness in the phase of disaster monitoring and early-warning;however,some emergency planning had low completeness in the phase of disaster preventive preparedness and post-disaster recovery. The results also showed that in the emergency planning,there was a higher missing rate with the six basic events of "the volunteer team building,the disaster risk assessment,the protection of emergency personnel,the disaster insurance claim,the protection of key infrastructure and the start-up of emergency shelters",which indicated that the idea of the whole-process management in the process of emergency planning development was absent.