盐穴地下储气库事故统计及风险分析

借鉴输气管道和二氧化碳地下封存设施的风险评价方法,结合盐穴地下储气库的事故统计分析,对储气库系统中的潜在风险因素进行12大类、35小类的初步分类,并归纳总结了盐穴地下储气库的3种主要事故类型。采用事故树分析的风险评价方法,对13种主要风险因素进行风险识别。在此基础上,提出定量风险评价的重要工程模型,其包括气体水合物模型、盐穴稳定性评价模型以及气体泄漏模型。该风险分析方法和工程模型有助于定量评价盐穴地下储气库的主要风险因素,为储库的安全稳定运行提供了科学依据。

Statistics and Risk Analysis of Underground Gas Storage Accidents in Salt Caverns

According to the statistics and analysis of previous accidents at gas storage,the paper studied these risk factors to draw lessons from risk assessment methods for gas pipeline as well as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). Three types of main accidents were summarized,and the potential risk factors in the whole gas storage system were classified as 12 main categories and 35 specific risks. Fault tree analysis was used as the risk assessment method to investigate and identify the 13 main risk factors that lead to the main accidents. On this basis,the key engineering models implemented in quantitative risk assessment were described,which included gas hydrate formation model,cavern stability model and gas leakage model. The risk analysis method and engineering models will contribute to quantitative evaluation of main risk factors,and provide scientific foundation for the safe and stable operation of underground gas storages in salt caverns.