| 基于贝叶斯网络的汽车起重机液压系统的可靠性评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐格宁,李银德,杨恒,左荣荣.基于贝叶斯网络的汽车起重机液压系统的可靠性评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐格宁 李银德 杨恒 左荣荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 太原科技大学机械工程学院,山西太原,030024 |
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| 摘 要： | 为评估汽车起重机液压系统的可靠性,首先结合故障树分析法(FTA)、贝叶斯网络(BN)构建液压系统故障树,然后映射成BN,再利用其在多态性和不确定性方面的优势,应用桶排除法,对系统进行可靠性评估。在给出底事件的发生概率后,通过正向推理,得到顶事件发生的概率为0.191 016。针对模型进行多态性和不确定性修正后,得到的顶事件概率为0.228 073,相对提高19.4%。最后利用反向推理,找出系统的薄弱环节并给出改正措施,为更全面高效的可靠性评估提出一种新方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 汽车起重机 液压系统 可靠性评估 故障树 贝叶斯网络(BN) 桶排除法 |
Reliability Assessment of Hydraulic Systems in Automobile Crane Based on Bayesian Networks |
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| XU Ge-ning,LI Yin-de,YANG Heng,ZUO Rong-rong.Reliability Assessment of Hydraulic Systems in Automobile Crane Based on Bayesian Networks[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(5). |
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| Authors: | XU Ge-ning LI Yin-de YANG Heng ZUO Rong-rong |
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| Institution: | XU Ge-ning LI Yin-de YANG Heng ZUO Rong-rong(Institute of Machinery Engineering,Taiyuan University of Science & Technology,Taiyuan Shanxi 030024,China) |
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| Abstract: | For the purpose of assessing the reliability of hydraulic systems in automobile crane,combined with fault tree analysis and BN,the assessment model of the hydraulic systems failure was established firstly.Secondly,mapped into a BN,and assessing the reliability of the systems by using the advantages of BN in terms of the multi-state variables and uncertainty relations and combining with the Bucket Elimination.After the probability of events being given,the top event probability of 0.191 016 was gotten by for... |
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| Keywords: | automobile crane hydraulic system reliability assessment fault tree Bayesian networks(BN) bucket elimination |
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