我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅰ):完备性评价

从自然灾害类应急预案着手,采用故障树分析方法(FTA)对其完备性进行评价。通过建立自然灾害类应急预案的标准故障树,确定各基本事件的权重,并将待评价应急预案的基本事件与标准故障树进行对比,进而得到其需要加强和完善的薄弱环节,并从量化的角度出发得到待评价应急预案的不完备度。最后,采用上述方法分析一个实际的地质灾害应急预案,对该应急预案的完备性进行评价,最终确定其需要加强和完善的方面,为制定或修订应急预案提供参考。

Study on Evaluation Method of Natural Disaster Emergency Plan in China (Part Ⅰ): Completeness Evaluation

The paper proposed a completeness evaluation method for natural disaster emergency plan by the fault tree analysis(FTA).Firstly,the standard fault tree for natural disaster emergency plan was developed by referring the related laws and the existing disaster emergency plans,and then the basic events and their weights were determined.The aspects needing to be improved in the evaluated emergency plan could be found out by comparing the basic events in the evaluated emergency plan with the standard fault tree.Meanwhile,the emergency plan's incompleteness degree was quantitatively calculated.Finally,with the above method,the paper made a case study by evaluating completeness of an actual geologic disaster emergency plan,some aspects needing to be strengthened were found,which provided basis for revising the emergency plan.