城市公共安全风险评估与控制对策研究:以武汉市为例

为明确城市公共安全关键影响因素,解决以往研究中存在的研究区域小、影响因素单一、评估方法主观性强、对策措施缺乏针对性等问题,基于风险评估基础理论和因子分析法,构建城市公共安全风险评估指标体系和风险评估模型,并以武汉市为例进行公共安全风险评估,提出相应的风险控制对策。结果表明:构建的“灾害严重性-风险应对能力”风险评估指标体系对因子分析法具有较好的适用性,风险评估模型能够有效判别城市公共安全的关键影响因素;影响武汉市公共安全的4大关键影响因子为城市发展水平和基础设施、事故灾害、环境影响和地质灾害及其防治;2010—2017年间武汉市公共安全水平总体呈上升趋势,风险应对能力的提升对武汉市公共安全水平提升贡献较大。

Urban public safety risk assessment and control measures:a case study on Wuhan city

In order to clarify the key influencing factors of urban public safety,and to solve problems of small research area,single influencing factor,strong subjectivity of evaluation methods,and lack of pertinence of countermeasures in previous studies,urban public safety risk assessment index system and assessment model were established based on basic theory of risk assessment and factor analysis.Then,with Wuhan city as an example,public safety risk assessment was conducted,and corresponding risk control measures were put forward.The results show that the risk evaluation index system of"disaster severity-risk response capability"has good applicability to factor analysis,and the evaluation model can effectively identify the key factors affecting urban public safety.The four major ones for Wuhan are urban development level and infrastructure construction,accident disasters,environmental impact,and geological disasters and their prevention and control.From 2010 to 2017,public security level in Wuhan is generally on a rise,and by improving risk response ability,public safety level of Wuhan can be greatly improved.