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| 基于主成分投影法的洪水灾情评价研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴昌友,杨静红,许智慧.基于主成分投影法的洪水灾情评价研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(4):121-126. |
| 作者姓名： | 吴昌友 杨静红 许智慧 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台264005;东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 2. 山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台,264005 3. 东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030 |
| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金资助,教育部人文社会科学项目,山东省住房和城乡建设厅建设科技计划资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 洪水灾情等级的合理评估能够为防灾、减灾及备灾工作提供科学的依据,具有重要的现实意义。首先建立主成分投影法评价模型,并给出模型的基本步骤。以受灾面积、受灾人口数、破坏房屋面积和经济损失作为评价因子,构建洪水灾情的主成分投影评价模型。利用该模型,对新疆"96.7"洪水灾害中乌鲁木齐、塔城、博州、哈密、喀什和克州6个城市的灾情进行评价。结果表明:乌鲁木齐和塔城的洪水灾情被评估为重灾;博州、哈密、喀什和克州的洪水灾情被评估为中灾。这些评价结果与集对分析(SPA)理论、贝叶斯随机评价方法、灰色关联法和脉冲耦合神经网络(PCNN)模型评价结果完全一致。 |
| 关 键 词： | 主成分投影模型 洪水灾情 灾情等级 受灾面积 集对分析(SPA)理论 |
Research on the Evaluation of Flood Disaster Based on Principal Component Projection Method |
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| WU Chang-you , YANG Jing-hong , XU Zhi-hui.Research on the Evaluation of Flood Disaster Based on Principal Component Projection Method[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(4):121-126. | |
| Authors: | WU Chang-you YANG Jing-hong XU Zhi-hui |
| Institution: | 1 College of Management Science & Engineering,Shandong Institute of Business & Technology, Yantai Shandong 264005,China 2 College of Engineering,Northeast Agriculture University, Harbin Heilongjiang 150030,China) |
| Abstract: | Reasonable evaluation of the flood disaster level can provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention,mitigation and disaster preparedness,which has important practical significance.Firstly,a principal component projection method model was built,and the steps were given.The effected area,the effected population,the floor area of destroyed buildings and the economic loss were taken as the evaluating indicators.The losses caused by Xinjiang"96·7" flood in six cities of Urumqi,Tacheng,Bozhou,Hami,Kashi and Kezhou were evaluated using the model.The results indicate that the flood in Urumqi and Tacheng is a heavy disaster;the flood in Bozhou,Hami,Kashi and Kezhou is a moderate disaster.The evaluation results are in conformity with those by SPA theory,Bayesian random evaluation method,grey correlation method and the model of PCNN. |
| Keywords: | principal component projection model flood disaster disaster level disaster area set pair analysis(SPA) theory |
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