基于系统仿真的飞行风险科目安全性预测预防方法

为了提高飞行安全预测预防的科学性和透明度,在总结分析其种类和优缺点的基础上,提出了一种基于人-机-环复杂系统仿真的飞行安全预测预防方法的基本思路和评估步骤。选取GJB 626A—2006中的低空大表速科目进行飞行安全预测预防方法研究,通过潜在危险分析给出该科目在飞行中易出现2条事故链,并对故障元件进行可靠性建模。通过人机系统建模对事故场景进行仿真,得到风险决定性参数样本极值,并应用极值理论和马尔科夫法进行定量评估,提出了飞行安全性预防措施。

Safety Forecast and Prevention Method for Risky Flight Subjects Based on System Simulation

The current methods of flight safety prediction and prevention are mainly in managerial and qualitative level.Forecasting methods based on time series are lack of man-machine-environment physical considerations.In order to improve the transparency and rationality of flight safety prediction,analysis of types and advantages and disadvantages of flight safety prediction and prevention is done,and a flight safety forecast and prevention method based on simulation of man-aircraft-environment complex system is proposed.The subject of "high velocity at low altitude" in GJB 626A—2006 is used as an example,through underlying hazard analysis,the two liable accident chains in the flight subject are given.The reliability model of failure element is established.Accident scene is simulated based on man-machine modeling.Flight safety of high risk subject is quantitatively assessed by using Extreme Value Theory and Markovian method,and flight accident prevention methods are proposed.