公共场所泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险水平的估计

笔者研究目的在于对人群聚集公共场所某种类型事故所导致的个人风险进行定量。首先,在前期研究的基础上,推出人群聚集公共场所个人风险定量计算模型。其次,根据火灾的发生率、死亡率及两类事故之间的发生次数比率,估计出国内毒物泄漏、中毒事故发生率和死亡率。最后,根据个人风险的定义求得公共场所毒物泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险的初始值,并进行了进一步的结论修正。对比国外的个人风险标准,结果表明,从整体上看2001—2005年公共场所毒物泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险是可以接受的。该研究结论可以为制定我国个人风险标准提供理论参考依据。

Estimation on Individual Risk Resulted from Leakage and Toxicity Accidents in Public Places

The paper aims to make a quantitative analysis of the individual risk in public places. Firstly, the quantitative calculation model of individual risk in public places with crowded people is presented on the basis of former research. Then, according to the occurrence rate of fire and its death rate, the occurrence rate of leakage and toxicity accidents and the death rate caused by those accidents are estimated out. Finally, the original individual risk of leakage and toxicity accidents in public places is calculated out according to the definition of individual risk, and further correction is made on the results. By referring to the standard of individual risk at abroad, it is concluded that the individual risk caused by leakage and toxicity accidents in public places is acceptable from 2001 to 2005, which provides foundation for the criteria establishment of the individual risk in China.