Towards more detailed determination of third party impact on risk on natural gas pipelines: Influence of population density |
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| Institution: | 1. University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Aškerčeva 6, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia;2. Plinovodi d.o.o., Cesta Ljubljanske brigade 11b, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia;1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bocni II, 14131 Prague, Czech Republic;2. George Mason University, School of Physics, Astronomy and Computational Science, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA;3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliospheric Physics Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA;1. Conn Center for Renewable Energy Research, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA;2. Distillers Grain Technology Council, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA;1. Mechanical Engineering Department, Technical Education Faculty, Urmia University, Urmia, West Azerbaijan 57561-15311, Iran;2. Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Sahand New Town, Tabriz, Iran;3. Department of Mechanical Engineering of Agricultural Machinery, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran;1. Yuzuncu Yil University, Educational Faculty, Department of Chemistry, Van, Turkey;2. King Abdulaziz University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Industrial Engineering, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;3. Bingol University, Central Research Laboratory, Bingol, Turkey |
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| Abstract: | The paper presents a refined way to quantify the effects of third party interference on risk that is posed on people by transmission pipelines for natural gas. The main focus is set on the influence of population density on risk. Using the interdisciplinary approach, the presented study combines the knowledge from relevant risk assessment recommendations, physical consequences of hazardous events, existing history databases of hazardous event frequencies and urban planning. A quantitative boundary between two most populated types of area was established. A flexible risk coefficient was determined for a suburban type of populated area that is dependent on average population density. Consequently, a new approach for determination of a hazard distance from the pipeline and area boundaries for calculation of average population density was presented. This differs from the established methods described in some guidelines, but is based on results of applied quantitative risk assessment. The final result is more accurate determination of risk levels in suburban areas. Described methods may serve as a supplement to the existing models for quantitative risk assessment on pipelines used in natural gas transportation and may be used by pipeline operators as well as policy- and decision makers. |
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| Keywords: | Risk analysis Natural gas Pipelines Third party interference Population density Suburban areas |
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