集成DEMATEL-ISM的古建筑火灾致因因素评价

为深入了解古建筑火灾事故致因因素，提高古建筑消防安全管理水平，基于事故致因理论，采用德尔菲法从人员、古建筑消防系统、古建筑防火能力、安全管理与环境五个方面确定18个古建筑火灾致因因素，并建立古建筑火灾事故评价指标体系。同时运用实验室决策分析法(DEMATEL)构建矩阵对古建筑火灾致因因素进行分析。一方面，通过原因度定量结果对古建筑火灾致因因素的属性进行分类，确定其属于火灾原因因素还是结果因素；另一方面，通过中心度指标评价古建筑火灾各个致因因素的重要程度。进而利用解释结构模型(ISM)将致因因素进行层级划分，构建5层3阶的多级递阶模型，分析致因因素间的耦合和交互关系。结果表明，古建筑火灾事故的发生是近邻原因、过渡原因及本质原因共同作用的结果，并针对这三方面确定古建筑火灾事故重点管控方向。同时，在古建筑消防安全管理中，应重点关注中心度较大的致因因素。

A DEMATEL-ISM-integrated cause factors system for fire accidents in ancient buildings

By the theory of accident causation and the Delphi method, 18 fire-causing factors of ancient buildings were identified, which fall into five aspects: personnel, ancient building fire control system, ancient building fire prevention ability, safety management and environment. An evaluation index system of ancient building fire accidents was established. At the same time, the matrix is constructed using Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to analyze the fire-causing factors of ancient buildings. On the one hand, the attributes of fire-causing factors of ancient buildings are classified by quantitative results of cause degree, and it is determined whether they belong to fire-causing factors or result factors. On the other hand, the centrality index is used to evaluate the importance of each cause factor of ancient building fires. Then, the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) is used to divide the contributing factors into different levels, and a multilevel hierarchical model with 5 layers and 3 orders is constructed to analyze the coupling and interaction between contributing factors. The results show that the fire accidents in ancient buildings result from the joint action of neighboring reasons, transitional reasons and essential reasons. The key control directions of fire accidents in ancient buildings are determined according to these three aspects. At the same time, the causative factors with greater centrality should be focused on for the fire safety management of ancient buildings.