基于故障树的生物质气化中毒事故BN-LOPA分析

为降低生物质气化中毒事故的概率,本文提出基于故障树的贝叶斯—保护层复合分析法(BN-LOPA),对生物质气化中毒事故进行风险分析。以辽宁省某气化站为例,通过贝叶斯网络计算出该气化站中毒事故发生概率为1.11×10^(-4),基于贝叶斯网络推导出中毒事故基本事件的后验概率,得到导致事故发生的故障节点,并对其设置独立防护层,经推导计算,该气化站的气化中毒事故发生概率可降低至5.35×10^(-6),风险等级从7级降至5级。结果表明:该气化站增加独立防护层后,符合安全生产的要求。

BN-LOPA Analysis of Biomass Gasification Poisoning Accident Based on Fault Tree

In order to reduce the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accidents,a Bayesian Network-Layer of Protective Analysis(BN-LOPA)method was proposed based on the fault tree to evaluate the risk of biomass gasification poisoning accident.A certain gasification station in Liaoning Province was took as an example to be analyzed.According to the Bayesian Network,the probability of poisoning accident was calculated to be 1.11×10^-4,the posteriori probability of the basic incident of poisoning accident was derived,and the failure nodes of the accident was found.With the protection of independent protective layer,the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accident was reduced to 5.35×10^-6,and the corresponding risk grade was reduced from 7 to 5.The results showed that the gasification station could meet the requirements of safety production after adding independent protective layer.