Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis |
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| Authors: | Adam S Markowski M Sam Mannan Agata Kotynia Dorota Siuta |
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| Institution: | 1. Process Safety and Ecological Division, Faculty of Process and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Lodz, 90-924 Lodz, ul. Wolczanska 213, Poland;2. Mary Kay O''Connor Process Safety Center, Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University System, 3122 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3122, USA;1. Safety Science and Security Group, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands;2. OCI Nitrogen Geleen, The Netherlands;3. ARGoSS, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;1. LISES-DICAM Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica, Ambientale e dei Materiali, Alma Mater Studiorum – Università di Bologna, via Terracini 28, 40131 Bologna, Italy;2. Department of Production and Quality Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology NTNU, S.P. Andersens veg 5, 7031 Trondheim, Norway;3. SINTEF Technology and Society, Safety Research, S.P. Andersens veg 5, 7031 Trondheim, Norway;4. Safety and Risk Engineering Group (SREG), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada;1. Mary Kay O’Connor Process Safety Center, Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3122, USA;2. Process Safety Consultant, Spring, TX, USA;1. School of Chemical and Energy Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, UTM Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia;2. Green Energy and Environmental Planning Research Group, School of Chemical and Energy Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia;3. Centre of Hydrogen Energy (CHE), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, UTM Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia;1. Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands;2. Process Engineering and Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Canada;3. Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy;4. Mary Kay O''Connor Process Safety Center, Texas A&M University, USA |
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| Abstract: | Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined. |
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