Pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas with risk assessment and individual character analysis |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Safety Engineering, College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, China;2. University Gustave Eiffel, UPEC, CNRS, Laboratory Multi Scale Modeling and Simulation, (MSME/UMR 8208), 5 bd Descartes, 77454, Marne-la-Vallee, France;3. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211816, Jiangsu, China;4. Process Safety and Disaster Prevention Laboratory, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliou, Yunlin, 64002, Taiwan, ROC;1. Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an, 710054, Shaanxi, China;2. Xi''an Key Laboratory of Urban Public Safety and Fire Rescue, Xi''an, 710054, Shaanxi, China;1. “Ilie Murgulescu” Institute of Physical Chemistry, Romanian Academy, 202 Spl. Independentei, 060021, Bucharest, Romania;2. Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), 100 Bundesallee, 38116, Braunschweig, Germany;1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing, D11 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China;2. China Oil & Gas Pipeline Network Corporation, 5 Dongtucheng Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China;1. CAIMI Centro de Aplicaciones Informáticas y Modelado en Ingeniería, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional, Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos, 1346, S2000BQA, Rosario, Argentina;2. CONICET Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Blvd. 27 de Febrero 210 Bis, S2000EZP, Rosario, Argentina |
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| Abstract: | With the ever-increasing development of those chemical parks (concentrated areas), the inherent hazards may remain the major leading cause of serious casualties, causing dramatic increases in deaths and injuries. Despite this, proper path beforehand can effectively minimise the number of deaths or injured. In this study, in order to better address the aforesaid issue, the pre-evacuation path planning was adopted to do so. This method can serve to prepare emergency response in case of extreme events, such as fires, explosions, or dangerous leakages, because these accidents could happen in chemical parks (concentrated areas). To that end, a framework was therefore proposed. First, the general risk representation was conducted. After the main hazards as well as the vulnerability within the facilities was identified, the interaction between those two factors could be expressed with matrices. This was followed by the analysis of the domino effect, which tends to occur under such circumstances. Second, individuals' visibility and inclination at each location to choose the nearest exit gate or shelter zone were analyzed by space syntax analysis. Third, a weighted risk map mainly composed of risk, individual's visibility, and inclination of exits was therefore generated. And the lowest cumulative risk path was simulated and analyzed accordingly. Finally, the map modified with received risks suggests that each individual's safest route from their current locations can be possibly simulated with Dijkstra's algorithm, which corresponds to the lowest cumulative risk. For the purposes of illustration and validation, a real case was adopted. The results demonstrated that this framework could provide both technical and theoretical support for the pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas like chemicals-concentrated areas. |
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| Keywords: | General risk representation Individuals' visibility and inclination Weighted risk map Lowest cumulative risk path Dijkstra's algorithm |
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