基于船舶操纵模拟的船撞桥概率研究

针对船舶在桥区水域航行过程中撞击桥墩的碰撞概率问题，建立并验证了船舶操纵数学模型，模拟了船舶在不同风、水流等条件下的航行情况，改进了AASHTO船舶撞桥概率模型中几何概率的算法，提出了以模拟试验样本的航迹带中心位置坐标为均值，以模拟实验样本结果计算的方差为方差的几何概率模型，同时引入停船概率模型。将改进后的模型应用于北江油金大桥船舶操纵模拟及船撞概率的研究，预测2020年北江油金大桥受上行船舶碰撞年频率大约2.81×10-6次/a，受下行船舶碰撞年频率3.43×10-4次/a，总碰撞频率3.461×10-4次/a。

Study on probability of ship bridge collision based on simulation of ship maneuvering

Aiming at the problem of collision probability for the ship bridge collision during the navigation process of ships in the bridge waterway,a mathematical model of hip maneuvering was established and verified.The navigation status of ship under different wind and water flow conditions was simulated,and the algorithm of geometric probability in the AASHTO model of ship bridge collision probability was improved.A model of geometric probability with the central position of the ship’s track belt as the mean value and the sample calculated from the simulation tests as the variance was proposed,and the model of ship stopping probability was introduced.The improved model was applied in the study on the ship maneuvering simulation and ship bridge collision probability of Youjin bridge in Beijiang.The predicted results showed that the collision probability between upward ships and the bridge was 2.81×10-6 times per year,while the probability between downward ships and the bridge was 3.43×10-4 times per year,and the total collision probability was 3.461×10-4 times per year.