成品油站场工艺管道风险辨识与评价

为保障成品油站场工艺管道的安全平稳运行，在充分辨识风险因素的前提下，提出了一种基于KENT法和RBI的风险评价方法。首先，以风险机理分析为基础，采用SHEL模型从导致风险上升的直接原因（风险内因）和间接原因（风险外因）2个角度辨识了风险因素，并细化各因素指标项；然后借鉴KENT法，对各指标项进行评分量化；依据RBI法，采用风险外因体系修正风险内因体系的方式确定失效可能性；综合环境后果、人员后果与商业后果，明确失效后果的评价体系与计算方法；最后，结合失效可能性与失效后果进行风险评价，从风险等级和风险排序2方面为检维修决策提供依据。应用表明:该评价方法便于工艺管道风险评价的基层实施，可为基于风险的检维修决策提供有效技术支撑。

Risk identification and assessment of process pipelines in product oil station

In order to ensure the safe and stable operation of process pipelines in the product oil station, a risk assessment method based on KENT method and RBI method was proposed on the premise of fully identifying the risk factors. Firstly, the risk factors were identified from two perspectives of the direct causes (internal causes of risk) and indirect causes (external causes of risk) causing the risk rise by using the SHEL model, and the index items of each factor were refined. Then each index item was scored and quantified by referring to the KENT method. According to the RBI method, the failure possibility was determined using the technical thinking of using the external cause system of risk to correct the internal cause system of risk. The assessment system and calculation method of failure consequence were determined considering the environmental consequence, personnel consequence and commercial consequence. Finally, the risk assessment was carried out combining the failure possibility with the failure consequence, so as to provide the basis for the maintenance decision making from two aspects of risk grade and risk ranking. The application showed that the assessment method was convenient for the basic level implementation of risk assessment on the process pipelines, and it can effectively provide the technical support for the risk based maintenance decision making.