完善与发展重大突发事件情景构建技术方法的核心问题

重大突发事件情景构建是近年在我国兴起的支撑应急准备能力建设的一种方法和思路，广泛应用于公共安全领域的预案体系管理、应急演练设计、应急体系规划等应急准备行动。但是，随着相关研究和应用的逐年深入，如何将其进一步总结、凝练，进而发展成为突破层级和业务领域的标准化风险管理方法是当前应急管理领域急需解决的问题之一。首先，从重大突发事件情景构建的重要性与必要性入手，总结回顾目前国内外情景构建相关的研究与应用现状；其次，在情景构建理论体系和应用实践总结的基础上，围绕“综合风险评估和专家观点的情景主题筛选”“基于专业知识和真实案例支撑的‘故事化’表达”“基于通用应急任务清单支撑的任务梳理”和“基于任务驱动的风险沟通机制”4个核心理念进行深入分析和讨论；最后，结合目前我国应急管理机构改革的情况，从情景构建标准体系的建立和基于标准的情景构建实践工作出发，提出针对性建议。研究结果可为重大突发事件情景构建标准体系的建立与推广提供理论基础和参考借鉴。

Core issues of perfecting and developing technical methods for scenario construction of major emergencies

The scenario construction of major emergencies is a method and idea rising in China to support the establishment of emergency preparedness capacity in recent years, which has been widely applied in the emergency preparedness actions such as plan system management, emergency drill design and emergency system planning in the field of public safety. However, with the thorough relevant research and application year by year, how to further summarize and condense it, thus develop it into a standardized risk management method that breaks through the hierarchy and business areas is one of the problems needing to be solved immediately in the field of emergency management at present. Firstly, starting from the importance and necessity of the scenario construction of major emergencies, the current status of relevant research and application on scenario construction at home and abroad were summarized and reviewed. Secondly, based on the theory system and application practice summary of scenario construction, the in depth analysis and discussion were carried out around four core ideas including “selection of scenario topic based on comprehensive risk assessment and experts’ opinions”, “story telling expression based on support of professional knowledge and real case”, “tasks analysis based on support of general emergency tasks list” and “risk communication mechanism based on tasks driving”. Finally, combined with the current situation of emergency management institutional reform in China, the targeted suggestions were put forward starting from the establishment of scenario construction standards system and practice work of scenario construction based on the standards. The results can provide theoretical basis and reference for the establishment and promotion of the standards system about the scenario construction of major emergencies.