基于电力历史应急大数据的应急情景规则分析与发现方法研究

为了解决电力突发事件演化过程难于预测，进而导致事件应急缺少针对性，较为被动的问题，提出在现有应急预案指导、事故模拟仿真、事故案例经验总结等方法基础上，引入基于电力历史大数据分析与预测的应急情景规则分析与发现方法，将电力应急突发事件情景构建的结果与相关大数据预测模型（汇总统计、分类与预测）相结合，提出科学、合理且具有良好操作性的情景演化规则的获取方法与技术路线，为进一步提高复杂电力突发事件的应急处置与指挥能力提供技术支撑。

Study on analysis and discovery methods of emergency scenario rules based on big data of electric power historical emergency

In order to solve the problem that the evolution process of electric power emergencies is difficult to predict, which causes the lacking of pertinence and passiveness in the emergency of events, the analysis and discovery methods of emergency scenario rules based on the analysis and prediction of the electric power historical big data were introduced on the basis of the existing emergency plan guidance, accident simulation and experience summary of accident cases. The results of scenario construction on the electric power emergencies were combined with the related prediction model of big data (summary statistics, classification and prediction), and the acquisition method and technical route of scenario evolution rules being scientific, reasonable and operable were put forward, which provide the technical support for further improving the emergency disposal and command abilities of complex electric power emergencies.