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体育馆建筑内青年学生疏散预动作时间调查和分析
引用本文:沈一洲,朱国庆,李欢欢,吴维华.体育馆建筑内青年学生疏散预动作时间调查和分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(2):65-68.
作者姓名:沈一洲  朱国庆  李欢欢  吴维华
作者单位:中国矿业大学安全工程学院,徐州221008;中国矿业大学消防工程研究所,徐州221008
基金项目:体育馆人员疏散特性研究(编号:2011-k3-9)
摘    要:通过组织火灾应急疏散逃生演习、现场问卷调查等方式,统计了体育馆内人员的疏散预动作时间,进而建立多分变量逻辑斯蒂回归模型对该统计数据进行了研究.发现:男生选择疏散预动作时间为<30 s的可能性是女生的0.886倍,选择疏散预动作时间为30-60 s的可能性是女生的2.818倍.预测人员疏散预动作时间为<30 s、30 -60 s、>60s的概率,男生分别为15.45%,75.61%、8.94%,而女生分别为24.14%,39.72%、36.14%;研究结果表明:人员性别的不同对疏散预动作时间有一定的影响,在体育馆类建筑中,青少年人员疏散预动作时间基本上小于60 s.

关 键 词:人员性别  疏散预动作时间  多分变量逻辑斯蒂回归  问卷调查

Investigation and analysis on pre-evacuation time of young students in the gymnasium
SHEN Yi-zhou , ZHU Guo-qing , LI Huan-huan , WU Wei-hua.Investigation and analysis on pre-evacuation time of young students in the gymnasium[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(2):65-68.
Authors:SHEN Yi-zhou  ZHU Guo-qing  LI Huan-huan  WU Wei-hua
Institution:1,2(1.Faculty of safety engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China)(2.Fire engineering institute,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China)
Abstract:Personnel pre-movement time in the gymnasium was studied by fire emergency evacuation drill and questionnaire survey.The Multinominal Logistic Regression Model was applied on analyzing survey data.The result showed that evacuation pre-movement time(<30 s) spended by male is 0.603 times as long as one spended by female and evacuation pre-movement time(30 s-60 s) spended by male is 2.818 times longer than one spended by female.In public buildings represented by the stadium,the probability of male’s evacuation pre-movement time(<30 s,30 s-60 s,>60 s) respectively is 15.45 %,75.61 %,8.94 % and the probability of female’s evacuation pre-movement time(<30 s,30 s-60 s,>60 s) respectively is 24.14 %,39.72 %,36.14%.It showed that different gender has a certain effect on pre-evacuation time.In public buildings represented by the gymnasium,young students pre-movement time is less than 60 s.
Keywords:personnel gender  evacuation pre-movement time  multinominal logistic regression  questionnaire survey
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