基于AHP-联系熵的应急预案实施过程风险评估

应急预案制定后的实施对于事故发生后预案的顺利运行至关重要，因此，有必要对应急预案实施过程的风险水平进行度量。以应急预案实施过程作为研究对象，基于风险理论与AHP-联系熵耦合方法开展风险评估。以应急预案实施过程风险水平为目标层，应急预案的宣传教育和培训、应急资源的定期检查落实、应急演习训练、应急预案的实用性检验、应急预案电子化、事故回顾等过程要素作为策略层，实施方法科学高效、调动工作者积极的态度、领导的重视和能力、设备的完整性作为方案层，形成应急预案实施过程风险评估三级模型；运用联系熵表征风险标准与应急预案实施过程风险水平这2个集对之间的关联性，在AHP结构模型和权重分配的基础上计算加权熵并得到目标层的总联系熵，对比标准熵区间得到应急预案实施过程的整体风险等级。结果表明，采用AHP-联系熵度量方法提高了评价结果的结构性和准确性，比传统直接加权的方法更符合实际情况。

Risk assessment on implementation process of emergency plan based on AHP-connection entropy method

The management of emergency plan implementation is of vital importance for the successful operation of emergency plan after accidents.Therefore,it is necessary to measure the risk level of emergency plan implementation management.Taking the implementation process of emergency plan as the research object,the risk assessment was carried out based on the risk theory and AHP-connection entropy coupling method.The risk level of the implementation process of emergency plan was taken as the target layer,then the publicity,education and training of emergency plan,regular inspection and implementation of emergency resources,emergency exercise training,practicability verification of emergency plan,electronization of emergency plan,accident review and other process elements were taken as the strategy layer,and the scientific and efficient implementation method,positive attitude of workers,attention and ability of leadership,and integrity of equipment were taken as the scheme layer,thus a three-layer risk assessment model for the implementation process of emergency plan was established.The connection entropy was applied to represent the correlation between two set pair of risk standard and risk level of the implementation process of emergency plan,then the total connection entropy of target layer was obtained by calculating the weighted entropy on the basis of AHP structure model and weight distribution.Finally,the overall risk level of the implementation process of emergency plan was obtained by comparing with the standard entropy interval.The results showed that the AHP-connection entropy measurement method improved the structure and accuracy of the results,which fitted better with the actual situation than the traditional directly weighting method.