基于FDA模型的地铁列车洪淹事故致因分析*

为了从安全信息视角探究地铁列车洪淹事故原因，基于FDA（Forecast-Decision-Action）事故致因模型和真实事故案例，构建由个体（地铁行车人员）、自组织（地铁运营企业）和他组织（应急主管部门）3个事故致因子模型组成的地铁列车洪淹事故FDA致因模型，并针对安全管理重要环节提出事故预防建议。研究结果表明:阻断事故致因主链或子链、保证必要安全信息充分且完备、防范安全欺骗行为，可有效预防地铁列车洪淹事故，通过实证案例分析验证FDA模型可显著提升地铁防洪应急管理水平。

Causes analysis of subway train flooded accidents based on FDA model

In order to explore the causes of subway train flooded accidents from the perspective of safety information,based on the FDA (Forecast-Decision-Action) accident causation model and actual accident cases,a FDA accident causation model of subway train flooded accidents was constructed,which was composed of three accident causation sub-models including the individual (subway operation personnel),self-organization (subway operation enterprise) and other organizations (emergency management department).Moreover,the accident prevention suggestions were put forward aiming at the important links in safety management.The results showed that destroying the accident causation main chain or sub-chain,the guarantee of sufficient and complete necessary safety information and the prevention of safety fraud behavior could effectively prevent the occurrence of subway train flooded accidents.The actual case analysis validated that the model could significantly improve the emergency management level of subway flood control.